* Back up important files on your computer using DVDs, a memory stick, or a portable hard drive.

PART V.

TRANSPORTATION AND EVACUATION.

CHAPTER 13.

Transportation When hope hardly seems worth having, just mount a bicycle and go out for a spin down the road, without thought on anything but the ride you are taking.

-Arthur Conan Doyle Imagine dealing with getting to work, buying groceries, and getting the kids to school if there's no gasoline or severe rationing. This chapter will explain what you can do to prepare.

The topics we'll cover include five ways to ease your dependence on oil; whether a motorcycle is right for you; how to get around without gasoline; how to find the right bicycle for you; seven tips for staying alive on a bicycle; and how to safely store gasoline for emergencies.

How Vulnerable Are You?

According to recent Energy Information Administration Data,1 Americans each use around 1.2 gallons of gasoline per person per day, or 441 gallons per year.

So what would you do if your 441 gallons was cut by a third, or cut in half, or cut off? How about if there was a shortage of heating oil, jet fuel, or the diesel that powers the truck that brings food to your local grocer?

The smart thing to do is to get ahead of the curve by making changes in your lifestyle to use less gasoline now. If there is rationing, or just intermittent shortages, you'll have an advantage if you already are used to using less gasoline than other people.

One of the first promises that any U.S. presidential candidate trots out is to make the United States energy independent. This is a promise that will never be kept in a nation that functions as it does today. The United States imports 65% of the oil we use, up from 37% at the start of the Arab Oil Embargo in the 1970s.2 The United States is becoming more dependent on foreign oil, not less.

Any number of crises-war in the Middle East, an embargo by oil-rich nations, pirate attacks on tankers, international terrorism-can interrupt that supply. Some potential sparks for an energy spike include the following:* Mexico is our number-two supplier of imported oil.3 Mexico seems to be teetering dangerously on the edge of chaos. Worsening Mexico's problems, its oil production is falling off a cliff-down 7.8% in the first quarter of 2009 (to 2.67 million barrels per day).4 * A disruption at a refinery, transmission hub, or pipeline could break the flow of oil and gasoline to millions of Americans, sending prices at the pump spiking.

* A bad hurricane could take out much of the United States ' refining capacity in one swoop. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina slammed into the oil facilities along the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, 11 petroleum refineries were shut down, representing 2.5 million barrels per day or 15% of U.S. refining capacity.

* Severe winter storms are enough to disrupt the just-in-time flow of gasoline and heating oil across the country. Add in other natural disasters, the disruption we could see from a pandemic or economic meltdown, and you can see that there are plenty of things that could put your gas gauge on E.

I expect most fuel interruptions in the near future to be short term. The deeper threat is a long-term fuel disruption, due to a currency collapse, global financial collapse, or problem with our foreign oil suppliers.

A deeper emergency will probably be dealt with using rationing. Or we could have a cascade of long-and-short-term emergencies-for example, a currency collapse compounded by a pandemic spiked with an oil embargo-which could frazzle and snap the thinly stretched oil and gas supply lines that stretch across the country. These crises could leave you without gasoline for days or weeks, only to see it come back again when a semblance of normalcy is restored.

So I think you should expect that you'll be unable to buy gasoline for at least some short periods in the years ahead, and maybe sooner than you think. The question you should ask yourself is: "How stranded are you going to be?"

How well could you get by without a car? A web site called WalkScore (www.walkscore.com) is a great place to get a sense of how car-dependent you are now. Just type in your home address, and it will give you a map showing distances to grocery stores, restaurants, schools, libraries, drug stores, hardware stores, and more.

If you're a renter, you can use this kind of map to find a home in a place that will allow you to be less car-dependent. If you own your home, and you aren't moving anytime soon, you can use it to plan how you might get around in an oil-starved future.

One thing you might not be able to change easily is your job. And yet for most Americans, we spend more gasoline getting back and forth to work than any other kind of activity.

Five Ways to Ease Your Dependence on Oil

Here are five things you can do right now that will lessen your dependence on gasoline. The best part is that any one of these ideas will also save you money.

1. Telecommute. These are the facts: Nearly half of all commuters travel more than 20 miles round-trip to and from work; 22% travel more than 40 miles; and 10% travel more than 60 miles.According to a report by the American Electronics a.s.sociation, an estimated 1.35 billion gallons of gasoline could be conserved annually if every U.S. worker with the ability to telecommute did so 1.6 days per week (in other words, some people work at home one day a week; some work in their bathrobes two days per week).

Your boss may not agree to let you telecommute. In that case, see if he or she will let you adjust your hours to come in and leave 30 minutes later or earlier, so you can avoid rush hour. Traffic congestion cuts your fuel efficiency by 10% to 15%. According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, in 2003, drivers in the 85 most congested urban areas in the United States experienced 3.7 billion hours of travel delay, and as a result, they burned 2.3 billion gallons of wasted fuel.

The U.S. Department of Energy projects that the number of telecommuters will reach 29.1 million by 2010, or about 27.4% of the U.S. workforce. That alone should help save over 79 million gallons of gasoline. And if your job is something you could do from home, at least some of the time, there's no reason you shouldn't be one of the telecommuters. It makes you more efficient, it gives you an automatic raise, and the less we drive, the less of a stranglehold the Saudis have over us.

So if your boss is the flag-waving sort, it won 't hurt to mention that it's our patriotic duty to make the United States as energy independent as possible. As I said, complete energy independence is not possible in a United States that you would recognize.

The disadvantage to telecommuting is that if you can work from home, it's hard to separate work time and home time. Work can bleed into and take over your off-hours.

2. Use a remote office center. Your boss might not want everyone in the company to telecommute for a good reason: You work with a bunch of goof-offs who'll spend their days surfing YouTube and Facebook and not getting the job done if they are home alone.But you can still save a drive to work if a bunch of your coworkers live in the same area. You can all go to a satellite office or remote office center. These are usually cheap offices in an industrial location-maybe not the prettiest place to work, but it beats the heck out of an hour-long commute.

A remote office can also be a safeguard for important company data if it is combined with a backup computer network.

3. Move closer to work. This can be worth it for people who live far from the office. You save so much time on the commute that it's like you get a whole new life. But is it worth it for you?The excellent web site Political Calculations has an online calculator that makes the decision easier. It takes into account variables including the amount of your current rent or mortgage versus your new rent or mortgage, vehicle mileage, distance of your commute, and more. You can find this calculator at http://tinyurl.com/3jgnod.

4. Buy a more fuel-efficient car. This can be another expensive decision, though not as expensive as moving. Luckily, there's a Political Calculations calculator for this, too, at http://tinyurl.com/2gweq9.

5. Slow down! Most gasoline-powered vehicles in the United States are operated at speeds that aren't at their peak level of fuel efficiency. At highway speeds, for instance, the forces of aerodynamic drag can substantially increase the amount of fuel an automobile engine burns. (See Figure 13.1.)If you're a habitual speeder, slowing down to 55 miles per hour (mph) could increase your fuel efficiency anywhere from 7% to 21%. For every mile per hour faster than 55 mph you go, fuel economy drops by about 1%.

Fueleconomy.gov reports that you can a.s.sume each five mph you drive over 60 mph is like paying an additional 24 cents per gallon for gas.5 According to PoliticalCalculations.com, a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation reveals that the amount of drag force seen by a car being driven at 75 mph is some 33% higher than that of the same car being driven at 65 mph.

Find out how much you can save by slowing down-use the online calculator at http://tinyurl.com/6m7qb6. Other simple ways to save gas include using cruise control on the highway, removing excess weight from your car, and fully inflating your tires (this can boost your mileage by up to 3.3%). And when it comes time to buy new tires, try low-rolling resistance tires like those used on the Toyota Prius. An individual vehicle could save up to 6% of its gasoline use if it were fitted with very efficient tires, paying for the additional cost in about one year.6 Figure 13.1 Slow Down to Save Gas Source: Fueleconomy.gov.

Here is a link to 11 ways to improve your gas mileage in your car at Bankrate.com: http://tinyurl.com/35np86. Along with these tips, you can also check gas prices at sites like GasPriceWatch.com (http://tinyurl.com/33mqx6). Just enter your zip code and compare. However, don 't drive out of your way to get cheap gas-you'll burn more gas on the detour than you'll save at the pump.

Plan on Alternate Transportation

If there is an energy crisis, you're more than likely going to have to change how you get around. If you start now, you'll be way ahead of the game, and certainly far ahead of the sheeple who are driving around, oblivious to how thin a thread their current lifestyle depends on.

Use Public Transportation

This is a winner in many ways-cost, convenience (leave the driving to someone else), and environmental impact. The downsides are time (having to wait for a bus) and the fact that public transport is becoming more popular. Subways, trains, and buses are becoming very crowded in some urban areas, even as budgets are being cut due to falling state and munic.i.p.al revenues.

If public transport isn't conveniently located for you, consider car-pooling or van pooling with coworkers who live in the same area. This also gives you an excuse to leave work when the boss wants you to work late. ("Sorry, boss, my ride is waiting-hey, wouldn't telecommuting solve this problem?")

Downsize to a Motorcycle, Scooter, or Moped

It used to be that only kids and crazies would ride a moped around town. But an increasing number of people are using scooters and small-cc motorcycles to zip back and forth to work.

The difference between motorcycles, scooters, and mopeds is engine size. Mopeds are typically restricted to an engine displacement of 50 cc, though there are a few variations. Scooters are all over the map. Engine displacements range from under 50 cc to over 800 cc. Basically, scooters are a mid-size between mopeds and motorcycles. And motorcycles generally have engines of 250 cc or more-sometimes much more.

Most states set the maximum attainable speed for scooters used by riders without motorcycle licenses at 30 mph. In a post-crash future, those laws will probably go away or be widely ignored, but in such a future, scooters and motorcycles could also become much harder to get.

One thing to consider: The smaller your ride, the harder it is for automobile and truck drivers to see you. Be prepared to drive defensively.

Now for the big plus-the gas savings can be huge! But only if your motorcycle is a small-engined, miserly gas sipper. On the other hand, some owners of large, fast motorcycles say they don't save a whole lot of money over a car, thanks to big expenses on tires and engine maintenance like valve adjustments.

Keep Your Motorcycle a Cheap Ride. People who ride 'em tell me that a j.a.panese bike in the 500- to 750-cc range is the best combination of speed, comfort, and being easy on the wallet. Not only are these bikes cheap, but they also tend to be dependable, and easy to maintain.

Here are a few tips that will keep a motorcycle as cheap as possible:* Don't buy a big motorcycle for commuting. Unless you're doing high speeds on the Interstate, you don't need a big bike. A big motorcycle won't get much better mileage than an economical car.

* Buy a used motorcycle. People who own motorcycles are often trading up-that means a lot of used, well -loved motorcycles are on the second-hand market. You'll have to add in the cost of having the bike checked out and tuned up by a mechanic, but it will probably still be a lot cheaper.

* Don't buy a motorcycle with lots of plastic bodywork. It's very expensive to replace.

* Learn to do routine maintenance like oil changes yourself.

You might not need a motorcycle at all; a scooter might fill your needs. A growing section of Americans agree with this. In fact, 78,000 scooters were sold in 2008, up from 13,000 sold in 2000.

Large European motorcycles tend to require more maintenance (ka-ching!). If you do it right, the priciest regular expense on a motorcycle should be your tires. They wear out quickly, and you'll be surprised how much the good ones cost.

If you're worried about stability, you might consider the Piaggio MP3-a tilting three-wheel scooter that can be brought to a stop and parked like a car. I don't know what the repair bills on a fancy import would be, though.

Anyone riding a motorcycle, scooter, or moped should take a safety course and wear a helmet.

Storing Gasoline

Hopefully, gasoline shortages will be temporary and some semblance of normality will return. Still, if we start to experience on-and-off fuel shortages, you may be tempted to store gasoline at home.

If you're not the kind of complete idiot who could accidentally blow him- or herself up with a can of gasoline, get some jerry cans-cans specifically designed to store gasoline. You could fill them up right away, but I'm of the mind that you shouldn 't fill them up yet. After all, a real fuel crisis could be years away. Instead, I would recommend only filling them when you hear about local fuel shortages or a worsening crisis. When shortages start, there should still be time for you to get out and fill up.

Storage could be a problem. You can't put jerry cans of gasoline in a storage facility, or an apartment, or any s.p.a.ce without ventilation. You can't store them in your car, unless you have a death wish. Cans full of gasoline are portable bombs, for Pete's sake. Keep that in mind.

Gasoline does degrade with time; it won't last longer than a season unless you're using a fuel stabilizer like STA-BIL, which is another reason not to buy gasoline until you hear a shortage is starting. When gasoline goes bad it has a very distinctive skunky odor. Skunky gas can gum up your car 's fuel system. So if a shortage has been resolved quickly or didn't get too serious, use up that gas soon. You can always refill your reserve with fresh gas.

Gasoline stabilizers can preserve gasoline for up to a couple of years. You should only add stabilizer to an empty jerry can. Measure out enough to treat a can of gas; pour it in the can; and then fill the can with gas to about 95% capacity. That minimizes the possibility of condensation and still leaves a bit of room for expansion and contraction.

Important: Liquid fuels should never be stored in a typical attached garage. Along with the usual danger of evaporated fuel hanging around in an enclosed s.p.a.ce, many suburban garages also have a natural gas-fired or propane-fired hot water heater with a continuous pilot flame. That is a very dangerous combination of a vapor source and vapor ignition.

If you fill the cans when a fuel crisis starts, and store them safely, you'll have the option of leaving when other people in town are stuck and hungry.

Getting Around without Gasoline

All the transportation tips so far still center around the internal combustion engine. That's good as far as it goes, but there are other options. The world is undergoing a transportation revolution with electric vehicles, and a low-tech solution-the bicycle-is an excellent choice for many people.

Electric Cars