Garlic is a treatment for many of the woes that afflict man-some people say it even fights cancer, though that's further than I'm willing to go. In any case, it belongs in every survivalist's garden. You can even grow it in a window box if you don't have a yard.

Garlic contains a large number of unique sulfur-containing compounds. When you crush garlic cloves, a strong odor is released; this is a sign that potent anti-microbial compounds are being produced-ajoene, allyl sulfides, and vinyldithiins. These sulfur compounds are thought to be the source of garlic's healthful benefits. Scientists have proven that garlic displays antibiotic, antifungal, and antiviral properties.

Here are some of the things garlic is good for:* High blood pressure: Garlic lowers blood pressure by relaxing vein and artery walls. This action helps keep platelets from clumping together and improves blood flow, thereby reducing the risk of stroke. Garlic also decreases the levels of cholesterol and triglycerides, substances that increase the risk of cardiovascular diseases.

* Arterial plaque: Garlic's cardiovascular protective properties have been proven by many scientific studies. People over 50 years old who already had symptoms of atherosclerosis and who then consumed at least 900 mg per day of a standardized garlic supplement experienced significant reduction of arterial plaque formation.

* High blood sugar: Garlic increases insulin levels in the body. The result is lower blood sugar. Thus, garlic makes an excellent addition to the diet of people with diabetes. It will not take the place of insulin, anti-diabetes drugs, or a healthful diet, but garlic may help lower the need for additional insulin by reducing glycogen (stored sugar) release from the liver and by increasing the overall effectiveness of insulin.

* Ear infections: Place one to two drops of warm garlic oil in the ear ca.n.a.l several times a day at the onset of ear pain, and it will help speed the healing.

* More medical wonders: Garlic stokes the body's immune system, and is used to treat everything from the flu to herpes simplex (the virus responsible for cold sores) to v.a.g.i.n.al yeast infections.

Soaking in a garlic infusion (tea) has been shown to even help treat athlete's foot. You crush a garlic bulb, and steep in four to five cups of hot water. (Soak feet in garlic tea for 20 minutes, three times a day, and your athlete's foot will go away.) With all the good that comes with garlic, you can see why many people include garlic in their daily diets. Garlic aficionados add the herb to soups, salad dressings, and ca.s.seroles during the winter months to help prevent colds, or eat garlic at the first hint of a cold, cough, or flu. Garlic reduces congestion and may help break up mucus, which makes it effective against bronchitis.

Of course, you can overdo anything. Some people don't have a tolerance for garlic. But if you like garlic, make sure you grow it. You may need it if TSHTF.

Pandemics and Epidemics

Pandemics are illnesses spread across vast geographic areas. Epidemics are when a large part of any particular population gets sick. We'll probably see more pandemics and epidemics going forward. Why? Because each and every human being on Earth is a living, breathing germ factory. Germs are constantly mutating inside our bodies. Most of these mutations come to naught. But every now and then a mutation is successful, and that's when a new epidemic breaks out.

Be aware that the ma.s.s media will probably lie about the risks faced in a pandemic or epidemic. Why? In the early stages, they like to whip up fear to boost their ratings. In the later stages, the government will probably tell the media to not report developments so as to avoid panic, and the lapdogs in the media will probably go along.

It's probably best to do your own risk a.s.sessment. Before panicking, try to find out these five things:1. What is this disease? Is it a new strain of an existing disease or something that's never been seen before? A new disease poses much higher risks.

2. What is the incubation period before symptoms show up? The longer the incubation period, the more likely the disease can spread undetected through a wide swath of the population.

3. How fast is it spreading? Are there 100 new cases in a week? 1,000? 10,000? Are some areas of the country or state more infected than others?

4. What is the contagion risk? Is the disease very contagious, spreading by air? Is it moderately contagious, spreading by flesh contact? Or is it less contagious, spreading by body fluids?

5. What is the mortality rate? A 50% mortality rate means half the people who contract the disease will die.

a.s.sessing these factors, you can roughly figure: (1) if people in your area could be exposed to the disease, and (2) what your risk is if you are exposed to these hypothetical carriers.

If the risk for you and your family is high, be proactive. Schools in particular are breeding grounds for diseases. Consider keeping your kids home if the mortality rate is high and/or if risks are increasing that other kids may be coming to school with the disease. Local governments will be quickly closing schools, as was seen in the recent swine flu panic. Be prepared to have your child at home, and your work disrupted.

If you can work from home, you are much better off. There is always pressure on sick workers to suck it up and come in anyway. Likewise, the grocery store is going to be a germ fiesta-yet another reason to have stocked up on survival food ahead of time.

Government Tips for the Next Swine Flu Outbreak The Center for Infection Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) and Pandemicflu.gov offer checklists for what families can do to get ready for a pandemic. The government is specifically worried about a swine flu pandemic, but their tips are general enough to cover other things. Many of their suggestions are similar to what survivalists are doing anyway, though naturally CIDRAP and Pandemicflu.gov are focused on disease prevention. Action items include:* Learn about pandemic H1N1 (swine flu) influenza, its symptoms, how it spreads, and how to prevent infections.

* Stock up on water and nonperishable food. Although the recommendations vary from days' to months' worth, most experts agree it's important to have extra key supplies on hand.

* Ensure you have a supply of your prescription medicines.

* Keep other emergency and health supplies handy such as flashlights, manual can openers, face masks, and painkillers.

* Make a list of people who are willing to help and can be contacted in case of emergencies.

* Make plans for potential disruptions at work, curtailed social gatherings, and school closures. (For example, is it possible to work from home if you are unable to go into work?) Other useful skills for pandemic preparedness include learning how to care for the sick at home, using rehydration therapy and isolation measures.

Source: CIDRAP, "Promising Practices for Pandemic Planning," www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/swineflu/news/jun3009personprep-pp.html.

In a Real Epidemic, America's Health-Care System Will Be Overwhelmed

In recent flu seasons, hospital emergency departments have quickly reached their limits and there is little room for a surge in patients in either emergency rooms or inpatient beds. In other words, even a normal flu season sends our health-care system to the brink of crisis.

According to an article in Public Health Reports:The federal pandemic influenza plan predicts that 30% of the population could be infected. The impact of this pandemic would quickly overwhelm the public health and health-care delivery systems in the U.S. and throughout the world.

The federal projection is that sometime in the next few years we could see a pandemic that would leave:* 45 million people in need of outpatient care * One to 10 million people in need of hospitalization * 130,000 to one-and-a-half million people in need of intensive care * 65,000 to 750,000 patients requiring mechanical ventilation * Deaths numbering from 200,000 to two million I don't think disease alone can bring down our civilization. However, disease can have a s...o...b..ll effect on an existing crisis. As resources are stretched thin to deal with one crisis, the system that normally handles disease is stretched to the breaking point. If the number of unattended dead increases, the chance of the disease spreading goes up exponentially.

When a tipping point is reached, disease can run rampant like wildfire, because the resources will be insufficient to stop the onslaught worldwide.

The Diseases of the Future Could Be Horrendous Along with the diseases bred in human guts and animals that are doped to the gills on antibiotics in factory farms (indeed, that's how Swine Flu got its startb), there is a new threat. The a.s.sociated Press says that amateur hobbyists called biohackers are now doing genetic engineering in their bas.e.m.e.nts: Using homemade lab equipment and the wealth of scientific knowledge available online, these hobbyists are trying to create new life forms through genetic engineering-a field long dominated by Ph.D.'s toiling in university and corporate laboratories.

Obviously, this is just a skip and a jump from unleashing an environmental or medical disaster. It could happen unwittingly or wittingly. Some bright lad laboring in a bas.e.m.e.nt laboratory in, say, the Middle East, could be brewing microscopic payback for enemies real or imagined.

This is just the latest twist in a long story. Our civilization is incredibly advanced and complex, and it would be ironic to see it humbled by the tiniest of creatures. But G.o.d seems to be disposed toward irony.

How to Protect Yourself and Your Family

The government tips mentioned earlier are good as far as they go. There are three simple things you can do to protect your family, which include a mix of common sense and hard science.

1. Keep your distance. Remember all that stuff I told you about building a strong neighborhood? When an epidemic is loose, you don't want to turn your backs on your neighbors, but you do want to keep your distance.Experts in so-called social distancing strategies say such measures can cut the chance of an outbreak of potentially deadly infections in half, but only if steps are taken early. That's why cities close schools when only one infection is reported.

For your own social distance, you want to stay at least three feet away from other people to avoid the infectious spray of droplets when someone coughs or sneezes. This will cut your risk of infection by 50%, according to government-sponsored studies.

If you have more s.p.a.ce, use it. Staying at least six feet away from others in public will cut your risk by two-thirds, according to the Centers for Disease Control.

In the 1918 flu pandemic-the worst, deadliest flu outbreak in modern U.S. history-cities that closed schools, churches, and theaters during the early months of the deadly plague had peak weekly death rates about 50% lower than those of cities that imposed such measures later or not at all.

2. Sanitize. Wash your hands frequently in soap and hot water for around 20 seconds. The CDC estimates that 80% of all infections are spread by hands. Consider stocking up on hand sanitizer (with aloe) and latex gloves for when you have to go out in public.

3. Stock up now. Along with hand sanitizer and latex gloves, consider the following:* N95 Particulate Respirators. You can pick up a 30-pack of these on Amazon.com for cheap. They are an improvement over surgical masks in that they keep out bacteria. Be aware, however, that a virus is much, much smaller than bacteria and these masks cannot stop a virus. You'll also want rolls of bandage tape for sealing any mask edge gaps that form, which easily occurs with kids.

* A steam vaporizer. It keeps your respiratory system moist, allowing it to fight off bacteria.

* Vitamins D and C-both of which help you fight off diseases.

* If you haven't already built up your food stockpile, get cracking. If a plague is raging, all your preparation could be undone by a single trip to the grocery store.

What If Friends or Relatives Show Up at Your Door When a Plague Is Raging?

There's no way around this-if there's an epidemic making the rounds, and friends show up at your house, you're going to have to put them in quarantine for as long as it takes the disease symptoms to show up. Keep your distance while talking to them and find some place to put them. Your garage, if you have one, may do the trick. You already have survival food and gear-stick some of that in your garage and start the countdown. The disease's incubation period is one of the points in the five-part risk a.s.sessment mentioned earlier in this chapter.

The Least You Can Do * Get a travel ditty bag. On the side, in magic marker, write: MEDICINE.In the bag, put packages of aspirin, Neosporin, Imodium AD, Pepto Bismol, Claritin, a small bottle of multivitamins, bandages, gauze pads, medical adhesive tape, alcohol prep pads, a small pair of scissors, a N95 Particulate Respirator, and any other medicines you use on a regular basis. Write down your doctor's name and contact info on a piece of paper, and add a list of any medications you are taking. Place it all in your bag, zip it up, and you're done.

* Put the bag where you can find it if you're running out the door.Remember to rotate the medicines in the bag before they expire.

* If you're slightly less lazy, get an aloe vera plant. They're simple to care for, hard to kill, and have many medicinal uses.

CHAPTER 11.

Your House, Home Security, and Power The best offense is a good defense.

-Anonymous A house can be many things-a home, a stronghold against intruders, and a base of operations. In this chapter, I delve into ways to secure your house against intruders, how to hide valuables in your home, and what you can do to make your home and neighborhood safer if society starts to break down. I also discuss whether you need a gun, including some very basic information if you decide you do.

Then we'll examine two things that can turn your home into a castle (water and power), as well as tools you might want to buy for home repairs and improvements.

But before we get to all that, we have to talk about one thing that Americans must do: Stop thinking about homes as investments.

Free Yourself from Thinking of Your Home as an Investment

There are seven good reasons why the housing bubble isn't coming back. I'll explain them to you now. Your life will be much easier and less stressful if you can get the real estate monkey off your back. The world has changed, and the days of flipping houses like rows of hamburgers are gone and probably not coming back in our lifetimes.

The first two years after the bursting of the housing bubble saw home prices fall about 30% from their peak. And nothing goes down forever, right? And maybe we'll see home prices bottom sometime in 2011 and 2012? I think that's actually optimistic! There are a couple of reasons why prices could start to rise at that time.

Reason #1: Simple Price Action, Enhanced by Time

Robert Shiller, an expert on housing prices and the author of Irrational Exuberance,1published a chart of how housing prices behaved for the last 120 years (adjusted for inflation). (See Figure 11.1.) The house price line is on top. Prices are indexed against the 1880 price (left scale), and the chart is updated through the end of the fourth quarter of 2008. At that time, Schiller's a.n.a.lysis suggested that, as of early 2009, home prices had to fall at least another 20% just to get back to fair value.

Never mind the price spike-that was the housing bubble. Historically, home prices have risen annually in line with the Consumer Price Index. By 2009, the median value of a home, based on historical precedent, should have risen to $150,000. But at the end of 2008, the median value of a home was $180,000.

Figure 11.1 Inflation-Adjusted Home Prices 1880 to 2008 Source: Investorinsight.com.

Sure, modern homes are bigger and more modern than they were in 1929. But they were bigger and more modern in 1969 than they were in 1929. The only way home prices can rise in real dollars is if incomes are going up as well, and they're not.

In short, while we could see temporary rallies, the easiest path for home prices is still down. And since there is usually overshoot to the downside after a bubble bursts, it could be much further down.

Reason #2: The Mortgage Default Tsunami

More than 2.3 million homeowners faced foreclosure proceedings in 2008, up more than 80% from 2007. A huge wave of ARMS-mortgage resets started in 2009 and will continue through mid-2012.

This tsunami of mortgage resets is one of the reasons why President Obama has created a $75 billion plan he says will prevent seven to nine million foreclosures. We aren't going to discuss the morals of bailing out people who bought too much house. I will point out that of homes that were delinquent in 2008 and then refinanced, more than half went back into foreclosure. Also, 40% of the homes sold at the peak of the bubble were second homes or investment properties. They won't be helped by Obama's mortgage initiative.

Obama's plan may ease some of the pain of the housing crisis, but won't make it go away. And it will probably weigh on the economy for years to come.