_April, 1916._ I am just off to the Reichstag where the Chancellor is to speak. I have no news here and none from America, but it seems to me five boats sunk almost at once will rather strain things at home. Here they do not want war with America. Perhaps von Tirpitz before leaving gave these submarine commanders these orders to sink at sight.

I think the Germans will eventually encircle and take Verdun, mostly now for moral effect.

Von Jagow will shortly give Conger (_a.s.sociated Press_) an interview disclaiming any intention on Germany's part of attacking America after the war. "A guilty conscience, etc.," and "Qui s'excuse, s'accuse."

Every night fifty million Germans cry themselves to sleep because all Mexico has not risen against us.

Part of Germany goes soon on meat ration. The food question is becoming acute, but they will last through here.

I think that the Germans would now, in spite of previous statements by a high authority, welcome the intervention of the President looking toward peace. Colonel House is so relied on here that he would be doubly welcome as the bird with the olive branch.

It looks more and more as if the issue of the campaign would be peace or war! On this issue the Germans at the last moment will have to side with the President.

The recent sessions of the Reichstag have been lively. Liebknecht caused a row on several occasions. Once by interrupting the Chancellor to imply that the Germans were not free, next to deny that the Germans had _not_ wished the war, and another time by calling attention to the attempts of the Germans to induce Mohammedan and Irish prisoners of war to desert to the German arms, the Irish being attacked through Sir Roger Cas.e.m.e.nt.

Liebknecht finally enraged the Government by calling out that the loan subscription was a swindle.

The German-American spies and traitors are hard at work at 48 Potsdammer Stra.s.se and also at the Oversea News Service, a concern paid for by Krupps. Mr. ----, in addition, gains money by getting permits for goods to go out of Germany, capitalising his "pull" as it were. Some of the money for their dirty work is given them by Roselius of Bremen, proprietor of the "Caffee Hag."

----, a traitor, who also writes against the President, also works with the gang.

This cry in America that German babies have not sufficient milk is all rot. One of our doctors has reported on the subject. The cry is only raised to get a hole in the British blockade.

The Germans are going at Verdun carefully, and an imitation of each French position or trench they wish to take--planned from airmen's and spies' reports--is constructed behind the German lines and the German soldiers practise taking it until they are judged letter perfect and are put to work to capture the original.

It is said the Germans have developed a submarine periscope so small as to be almost invisible, which works up and down so that only at intervals, for a second or so, does it appear above the water. Also, it is said the wireless vibrations by means of copper plates at each end are transmitted through the boat, and every member of the crew learns the wireless code, and no matter where working can catch the vibrations.

Note about the _Suss.e.x_ and other four ships just in. I think Germany is now determined to keep peace with America as the plain people are convinced that otherwise the war will be lengthened--a contingency abhorrent to all.

_May, 1916._ I delivered the last American note to von Jagow to-day. He said they probably would not answer, and then engaged me in gossipy conversation.

These people want peace and will gladly accept the President as mediator.

The Pope, they think, will want brokerage--a "Makler Lohn"--as they call it--concessions for the church, such as the return of the Jesuits, etc.

If they get good and sick of war here, perhaps they may not feel like revenge after all--but there is an ever-present danger we must prepare for.

The fact that I was given detailed instructions as to leaving, etc.--which they undoubtedly learned, with their wonderful spy system--helped the _Suss.e.x_ settlement.

The Chancellor and I became great friends as a result of my stay at the Hauptquartier. The League of Truth gang attacked me lately. The Government published a certificate in the _Official Gazette_ to the effect that I was their fair-haired boy, etc.--very nice of them. I really think they recognise that the propaganda was an awful failure and want to inaugurate the era of good feeling.

I did not go to the front at the Hauptquartier as reported. I had enough to do in Charleville, but did witness the splendid relief work being done by the Americans who are feeding 2,200,000 of the population of Northern France. Twenty thousand of the inhabitants of Lille, Roubaix-Tourcoing, are being sent under circ.u.mstances of great barbarity to work in the fields in small villages. I spoke to the Chancellor and he promised to remedy this.

Germans say they will take Verdun. A military treaty with Sweden is reported; a large Swedish Military Commission is now here, receiving much attention.

While at Charleville, in connection with American work, I asked, at one village, to see the German Army stores so as to convince myself that the German Army was not using the stores from America. I saw that one-half the stores came from _Holland_.

I think the psychological moment is approaching when Colonel House should appear as the President's White Emissary of Peace.

While the food question here is pressing, the harvest will be good, if present indications continue. Rye is the princ.i.p.al crop and this is harvested about July 12th. I think, however, Germany can last, and in very desperation may try a great offensive which may break the French lines and change the whole position. The people here, although tired of war, are well disciplined and will see this thing through without revolution.

We are rather in calm after the last crisis. The Chancellor sent for me and said he hoped we would do something to England or propose a general peace, otherwise his position here will become, he thinks, rather hard. Delbruck, vice-chancellor, very hostile to America, is out--failure as Minister of Interior to organise food supply is the real reason.

Yesterday I had a talk with the Chancellor. The occasion was the Polish Relief question which I shall now take up direct with Helfferich, who, as I predicted, is the new Minister of the Interior and Vice-Chancellor. He is a very business-like man and did much for the favourable settlement of our last crisis.

The Chancellor seemed rather downcast yesterday, without apparent cause. He says that Germany from now on will have two months of hardship on the food question, but that after that things will be all right. The crops, as I have seen on my shooting place, are magnificent and the rye harvest will probably begin even before July 15th.

Mrs. Gerard has just returned from a week in Budapest with her sister. The Hungarians are once more gay and confident. The Italians, their hereditary foes, are being driven back, and on the Russian front there seems to be a sort of tacit truce--no fighting and visiting in trenches, etc.--terms of great friendliness.

(This was the beginning of the fraternisation which led, a year later, to the collapse of Russia.)

At the races here last Sunday there was an absolutely record crowd and more money bet than on any previous day in German racing history. The cheaper field and stands were so full of soldiers that the crowd seemed grey, which goes to show that the last man is not at the front.

State Socialism makes advances over here. A proposition is now discussed to compel the young men who are earning large wages to save a part thereof.

On the _Suss.e.x_ question, I got a colleague to ask about the punishment of the Commander and to say at the Foreign Office, after he had once been refused any information, that I had heard that the people at large in America believed the Commander has received "Pour le Merite." Von Jagow said that he was sure that this was not so, but that he did not know the name of the Commander, and that it was not "usual" to tell what punishment had been given. So that I suppose the matter will rest, unless I get orders to ask formally about the punishment.

The German military people and ruling Junker cla.s.s are furious at the settlement with America, and abuse America, the President and me indiscriminately.

Anything the President says about peace is prominently placed in the newspapers.

Yesterday in a debate in the Reichstag over the censorship, member Stresemann, National Liberal (the party which now holds the balance of power), violently abused President Wilson and said he was not wanted as a peace-maker. All applauded except the Socialists--so I think the President had better say nothing more about peace for the present. What he has said has done much good and has pleased the Government here, if not the Reichstag.

Although von Jagow is a Junker of Junkers, the Junkers are against him and claim he is too weak. He may be bounced.

The crops are very fine.

Undoubtedly we shall have another crisis when the extremists here demand a "reckless" U-boat war because we are doing nothing to England.

Germany will last through on the food question.

I have heard reports that the Turks are tired of German rule and almost ready to flop.

I am to meet Prince Buelow, ex-Chancellor, to-morrow and may fish up something interesting.