Germany has the Balkan situation well in hand. Roumania can do nothing in the face of recent Russian defeats and has just consented to allow grain to be exported to Austria and Germany, but has, I think, not yet consented to allow the pa.s.sage of ammunition to Turkey. The pressure, however, is great. If not successful, perhaps German troops will invade Servia so as to get a pa.s.sage through to Turkey.

A minister from one of the Balkan States told me the situation of Roumania, Greece and Bulgaria was about the same, each state can last in war only about three months, so all are trying to gauge three months before the end and then come in on the winning side.

The Bulgarian Minister of the Public Debt got in here by mistake the other day, insisting he had an appointment; he _had_ an appointment with the Treasurer, Helfferich, whose office is nearby. This shows, perhaps, that Bulgaria is getting money here.

Also the Germans are sending back to Russia, Russians of revolutionary tendencies, who were prisoners here, with money and pa.s.sports in order that they may stir up trouble at home.

The Germans are making a great effort to take Warsaw, even old Landsturm men are in the fighting line; I think they will get it, and then they hope to turn two million men and strike a great blow in France--thus they expect to end the war by October.

I notice now a slight reaction from annexation toward giving up all or part of Belgium; but I must say I hear very little of popular dissatisfaction with the war. Everything seems to be going smoothly; but they are sc.r.a.ping the bottom of the box on getting men for the army.

It is not pleasant to be hated by so many millions. The Germans naturally make me the object of their concentrated hate. I received an anonymous letter in which the kindly writer rejoices that so many Americans were drowned in the Chicago disaster. This shows the state of mind.

The Emperor is at the front, "Somewhere in Galicia." They keep him very much in the background, I think, with the idea of disabusing the popular mind of the idea that this is "his war."

After all, accidents may happen, and even after a victorious war there may be a day of reckoning. The Chancellor went to the front yesterday, probably to see the Emperor about the American question.

_August, 1915._ I had a conversation last week of one hour and a half with the Chancellor. He sent for me because I had written him to take no more trouble about my seeing the Emperor. He explained, of course, first that he did not know I wanted to see the Emperor, and second that it was impossible to see the Emperor. They keep the Emperor well surrounded. _Now_ I do not want to see him. He is hot against Americans and the matters I wanted to talk of are all settled--one way. I cabled an interesting report on the Emperor's conversation re America.

The Chancellor is still wrong in his head; says it was necessary to invade Belgium, break all international laws, etc. I think, however, that he was personally against the fierce Dernburg propaganda in America. I judge that von Tirpitz, through his press bureau, has egged on the people so that this submarine war will continue. _An official confessed to me that they had tried to get England to interfere, together with them, in Mexico, and Germans "Gott strafe" the Monroe Doctrine in their daily prayers of hate._

Warsaw, as I predicted officially, long ago, will soon fall.

No great news--we are simply waiting for the inevitable submarine "accident."

Unless there is a change of sentiment in the Government I think the submarine commanders will be careful.

The Chancellor talked rather freely but again said it was impossible to leave Belgium to become an outpost of the English, but possibly with Germans in possession of the forts, the railways and with commercial rights in Antwerp it might be arranged.

There is a faction here led by deputy Ba.s.sermann, Stresemann, Fahrmann, etc., who are attacking the Chancellor. They represent great industrials who want to annex Belgium, Northern France, Poland and anything else that can be had, for their own ultimate advantage. A man named Hirsch is hired by the Krupp firm to "accelerate" this work. Krupps also pay the expenses of the "Oversea Service" which is feeding news to America.

A paper against annexation of Belgium has been signed, I am told, by Dernburg, Prince Hatzfeld and others, and will be presented to the Chancellor to-day. I believe many are to sign it; but of those who have signed are Hatzfeld, who is one of the three big Dukes of Prussia; Prince Henckel-Donnersmarck, who is the second richest subject in Germany--(85 years old, he was in 1870 first Governor of Lorraine)--von Harrach, who is a man of great ability, highly respected, as is also Professor Delbruck.

The Reichstag meets in a few days. The Socialists are holding daily caucuses, but have not yet decided on any party action.

Undoubtedly they will vote for the new ten milliard loan, with Liebknecht and a few others dissenting. Probably a split will also develop in the National Liberal Party; Ba.s.sermann and others have been attacking the Chancellor, but I think other members will dissent. It is quite probable that there will be a discussion about the _object_ of the war, and permission will be asked for public discussion, the Socialists perhaps claiming that they have consented to a defensive war only, and that now that the war is on enemy territory peace should be at least discussed.

There may also be talk about the annexation of Belgium and food prices. The Socialists are greatly incensed at those who are holding food for high prices.

Personally, I think that Germany now wants peace but does not want to say so openly.

A relative of a Field Marshal told me to-day that Germany's killed to date were 600,000 and 200,000 crippled for life.

I must say that the plain people still seem perfectly tame and ready to continue the war. However, there may also be a protest in the Reichstag about the treatment by non-commissioned officers of Landsturm men who have never served but who now, in the process of sc.r.a.ping the box, are called to the colors.

The Germans hope by a great movement to capture a great part of the Russian army; probably they will fail. They also entertain hopes that in such case Sweden will enter Finland and two Balkan States declare for them. Balkan Ministers here tell me the defeat of Russia makes it impossible for Roumania to enter, but they fear an invasion by the Germans. All diplomatic work is now centred in the Balkans.

Successes in Russia have made the people here very c.o.c.ky. Hence, probably, the torpedoing of the _Arabic_. Also great hope of Bulgaria coming in with Germany; there is no more dissatisfaction heard over the war. I have as yet received nothing from Washington regarding the _Arabic_.

I have just spent four half days at Ruhleben, where civilian Britishers are interned, so as to give every prisoner a chance to speak to me personally.

There is much talk of creating an independent Poland. The Reichstag session has developed no opposition.

A fac-simile of that infernal advertis.e.m.e.nt[A] of the Cleveland Automatic Tool Company in the _American Machinist_ was laid on the desk of every member of the Reichstag; and the papers are full of accounts of great deliveries of war munitions by America, possibly preparing people for a break. If Bulgaria comes in, Germany will undoubtedly take a strip in Servia and keep a road to Constantinople and the East. The new Turkish Amba.s.sador has just arrived. The old one was not friendly to Enver Bey and so was bounced; he remains here, however, as he fears if he went to Turkey he would get some "special" coffee. The hate for Americans grows daily.

[Footnote A: This was an advertis.e.m.e.nt in an American newspaper about machines for the manufacture of particularly deadly sh.e.l.ls and was much used in Germany to show how America was helping the Entente.]

All rumours are that in the recent council at Posen the Chancellor, advocating concessions in submarine war, won out over von Tirpitz. But von Tirpitz will die hard, and there will be trouble yet, as the Navy will be very angry if the present methods are abandoned. Members of the Reichstag have telegraphed backing up the Chancellor; but it is hard for any civilian idea to prevail against Army or Navy.

Probably the Admiralty will say that the submarine which torpedoed the _Arabic_ was lost, in order to avoid disgracing an officer.

If the _Arabic_ question is not complicated with the _Lusitania_ a solution will be easier. The common people have been aroused by von Tirpitz's press bureau and it will be simpler for the Chancellor to "back track," taking as an example a case like the _Arabic_ when the ship was going West and carried no ammunition.

The defeat of the Russians is undoubtedly crushing. Is England waking up too late? There will be a big offensive soon against the West lines.

I have heard nothing up to to-day from the State Department re the _Arabic_, except one cable asking me to request a report.

A correspondent has just been in and says that the General Staff people threaten to expel him because he went to Copenhagen and sent out news about the pet.i.tion to the Chancellor not to annex Belgium. The Foreign Office had no objection; this shows how the line is forming between the Chancellor and the Military. All correspondents to-day say the Germans are trying to dragoon them into sending only news which the General Staff wants sent, and the Military have added their censorship to that of the Foreign Office.

An official told me that Bernstorff, while not exactly exceeding his instructions in his "_Arabic_ Note" (of Sept. 1, 1915), had put the matter in a manner they did not approve.